Crypto economist Alex Krüger challenged allegations circulating on X in late February 2026 that Jane Street was systematically selling bitcoin around 10 a.m. ET to depress prices and buy spot bitcoin ETF shares at a discount. In a February 26 post, he said his analysis of BlackRock’s IBIT ETF did not support the alleged daily pattern.
In December 2025, the X account Whale Factor claimed bitcoin had been falling about 2–3% around 10 a.m. ET on almost every trading day since early November. Other posts blamed Jane Street for a decline from roughly $125,000 to $62,000 over the preceding months. The allegations remain unconfirmed.
The return analysis and its limits
Krüger said that, since January 1, 2026, IBIT’s cumulative return during the 10–10:30 a.m. ET window was positive 0.9%, while its cumulative return during the narrower 10–10:15 a.m. window was negative 1%. He described those results as noisy rather than evidence of systematic daily selling.
He also said performance in both windows closely tracked the Nasdaq, which he interpreted as broader repricing across risk assets.
The periods covered by the allegation and the analysis differ: Whale Factor’s claim extended back to early November 2025, while Krüger’s figures began on January 1, 2026. His ETF return analysis also does not identify the participants behind individual bitcoin trades.
Jane Street’s fourth-quarter 2025 Form 13F disclosures were reported to show roughly $790 million in IBIT shares. That reported holding does not establish when the firm traded bitcoin or whether it caused the price movements described in the posts.
How ETF trading fits into the dispute
Jane Street is an authorized participant in spot bitcoin ETFs. These funds hold bitcoin in custody while their shares trade on stock exchanges. Authorized participants can create or redeem shares, helping narrow differences between ETF trading prices and net asset value, or NAV.
In-kind creations and redemptions allow bitcoin to be exchanged for ETF shares, or shares for bitcoin. Market makers may also sell ETF shares short to meet demand and manage their exposure through derivatives. Bitcoin used in share creation can be obtained through over-the-counter transactions, so the process need not involve an immediate purchase on a public spot exchange.
Yale ReiSoleil, chief technology officer of financial infrastructure firm Untrading, argued that derivatives hedges and private bitcoin sourcing could reduce buying visible on public spot exchanges and weaken price discovery.
Krüger disputed the claim that those mechanics suppress bitcoin prices. “Whether the spot is bought by the AP or the basis trader, the net demand on BTC spot is identical,” he said. The disagreement concerns how ETF trading affects the wider market; neither explanation identifies the transactions Jane Street executed during the disputed morning windows.
Separate legal and regulatory disputes
The bitcoin allegations drew further attention alongside a separate lawsuit concerning Terraform Labs’ collapse in 2022. Todd Snyder, the court-appointed administrator winding down Terraform, alleged in a complaint filed in Manhattan federal court that Jane Street used nonpublic information to trade ahead of the collapse. Jane Street rejected the Terraform allegations as “baseless, opportunistic claims.”
Glassnode co-founders Jan Happel and Yann Allemann said through their shared Negentropic account on February 25, 2026, that the alleged morning selling pattern had disappeared after the lawsuit became public. That assertion did not establish whether Jane Street changed its trading or whether the lawsuit caused subsequent bitcoin price movements.
The Securities and Exchange Board of India, or SEBI, had also taken action against Jane Street entities in 2025 over alleged manipulation in Indian derivatives markets. That separate regulatory matter does not establish the allegations concerning bitcoin.
