Samsung’s HBM business is showing clear signs of a rebound after a rough stretch earlier in 2025. New industry estimates indicate the company’s quarterly HBM revenue share has climbed back above Micron’s, signaling that Samsung’s push to stabilize yields, improve packaging, and win key AI customers is starting to translate into real market momentum.
Samsung retakes No. 2 in Q3 2025 HBM share
According to Counterpoint Research figures cited by Korean business reporting, SK hynix led Q3 2025 HBM revenue share with 57%, while Samsung reached 22%—just ahead of Micron at 21%.
That’s a meaningful milestone for Samsung after several sluggish quarters, especially given how central HBM has become to modern AI accelerators and high-end GPUs.
The HBM3E qualification grind finally turns into customer wins
Samsung’s struggles in early 2025 were widely linked less to “HBM3 certification” in general and more specifically to qualification of high-end HBM3E stacks (notably 12-high parts) for top-tier customers—especially NVIDIA, which has been notoriously strict on validation for AI platforms.
By mid-2025, the tone began to shift. AMD’s Instinct MI350 cycle was widely reported as a turning point, with Samsung’s HBM3E appearing in the supply mix (alongside Micron), reinforcing the idea that Samsung’s process and packaging improvements were translating into deployable product.
Later in 2025, NVIDIA also confirmed a broader supply collaboration with Samsung that spans HBM3E and next-gen HBM4, while Samsung itself discussed selling HBM3E and shipping HBM4 samples to major customers—strong signals that the company is moving from “trying to qualify” to “shipping into programs.”
About that “40% last year” figure
One number that needs cleaner framing is the claim that Samsung’s HBM share was 40% last year.
That figure has been cited in the market before, but it appears tied to a different estimate and/or methodology (e.g., bank/analyst models) than Counterpoint’s quarterly revenue-share snapshot. The most accurate way to handle it is:
- Counterpoint (Q3 2025): Samsung 22% (revenue share)
- Other estimates (2024): Some analyst models put Samsung’s HBM share around ~40%, but the definitions may not match Counterpoint’s metric
That keeps the narrative intact—Samsung fell meaningfully, then recovered—without mixing apples and oranges.
Supply is still tight, and that favors anyone who can ship
Even with the top three players (SK hynix, Samsung, Micron), the market is still operating under intense demand pressure—especially as AI accelerators scale faster than memory capacity expansions. That means any supplier that can ramp volume with acceptable yields has leverage.
Samsung’s rebound matters because it increases “qualified supply” in a market that’s been constrained—particularly in higher-end stacks.
HBM4 is the next battleground, but “fastest pin speeds” is tricky
It’s tempting to declare Samsung the performance leader heading into HBM4, but “industry’s fastest pin speeds” is hard to defend cleanly because:
- Vendors are making different claims at different times
- Some targets are driven by customer asks (notably NVIDIA’s reported interest in 10Gb/s-per-pin HBM4)
- Other suppliers (including Micron) have publicly floated very high sample-speed claims (e.g., 11Gbps+)
The safer, more accurate framing: Samsung is positioning its HBM4 roadmap as competitive on speed, power, and supply, and it’s trying to regain share by being both technically credible and commercially aggressive.
Pricing pressure may be part of the strategy
Reports and analyst chatter also suggest Samsung may pursue more aggressive contract pricing in the near term to win sockets and rebuild share—especially as HBM4 programs start to firm up. That’s not unusual in memory cycles, but it’s noteworthy here because HBM has been one of the few categories with unusually strong pricing power.
What to watch in 2026
Samsung’s turnaround story will become clearer as 2026 products ramp—particularly platforms expected to rely on next-gen memory stacks, such as:
- AMD’s next big Instinct generation (often discussed as MI400)
- NVIDIA’s Rubin roadmap
Whether HBM4 is “mainstream” in early 2026 is still speculative, but 2026 is shaping up to be the year where HBM4 transitions from samples to meaningful volume shipments—and that’s where share will really be won or lost.